Elevance

I need to issue an apology/mea culpa for a fairly major screwup I made yesterday.

In my post rounding up projections of 2026 year-end ACA exchange enrollment from several major insurance carriers, I correctly tallied up the estimates from four of the five insurers via an article by Amy Lotven of Inside Health Policy:

• Centene projected a loss of 1.5 million people
• Evevance projected a loss of 400,000
• UnitedHealthcare projected a loss of 500,000
• Molina expects to lose 430,000

Combined, these come to 2.83 million across the four, which would be pretty dramatic if it proves accurate.

However, I then fumbled the ball when I looked at the Q4 2025 earnings call for another major ACA player, Oscar Health.

via Amy Lotven of Inside Health Policy:

Key Insurers Expect To Lose Nearly 3M Combined ACA Enrollee By End Of 2026

Key publicly traded insurers reported in recent earnings calls that they expect to lose nearly 3 million enrollees combined by the end of 2026, buoying stakeholders’ fear that the loss of the enhanced tax credits will drive more people from the marketplace than the 1 million fewer signups reported by CMS

While CMS’ mid-January snapshot showed that about 1 million fewer people enrolled in an Affordable Care Act plan during open enrollment compared to last year, insurers in recent earnings calls are echoing state exchange officials’ belief that true results will take time, and four large companies reveal they expect at least 2.8 million fewer ACA exchange consumers.

Also, in line with comments from state exchange officials, carriers are seeing more consumers enrolled in less-expensive bronze plans, which have higher co-pays and deductibles.